Alarming climate forecast: Will we heat up to 2.8 degrees?

Alarming climate forecast: Will we heat up to 2.8 degrees?

As if the challenges of climate change weren't big enough, a recent analysis shows that global efforts to limit global warming are falling far short of expectations. Reported today, November 5, 2025 Scinexx that the forecasts for temperature increases continue to be alarming. Without additional measures, global temperatures could rise by up to 3.1 degrees Celsius. Even if the previous commitments that some states have made are fully implemented, an increase of between 2.6 and 2.8 degrees can be expected.

The situation is particularly precarious as only 64 countries have submitted new National Commitments (NDCs) by the September 30, 2025 deadline. These countries are responsible for 63% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Of the G20 countries, only seven out of twenty countries submitted their voluntary commitments on time. Other countries such as China, Turkey and the EU plan to submit their NDCs later, but these delays raise questions.

The pressure is growing

Within the EU, member states are already discussing future climate goals. Some countries are even calling for these targets to be relaxed, citing economic difficulties. The G20 countries are clearly not on track to achieve their 2030 climate goals. In order to meet the Paris climate goals, CO2 emissions would have to be reduced by 35% (for 2 degrees) or 55% (for 1.5 degrees) by 2035, compared to 2019 values. At the moment, these goals seem to be a long way off, because even if the NDCs are fully implemented, only 15% savings by 2025 are realistic.

The increase in global CO2 emissions accelerated by 2.3% in 2024, reaching a record level. UN Secretary-General António Guterres underlines the urgency of increasing ambition in order not to exceed the 1.5 degree target. If this limit is exceeded, we could enter a critical phase that makes future temperature reductions extremely difficult through positive feedback.

A glimmer of hope?

An insightful addition comes from UNEP, which in its report suggests a possible reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of up to 25% through a green recovery after the pandemic. This could contribute significantly to achieving the 2° Celsius target of the Paris Agreement. The annual Emissions Gap Report analysis shows that despite a decline in CO2 emissions due to COVID-19, the world is still heading for a temperature increase of over 3°C this century.

Calls for governments to invest in climate protection as they recover from the pandemic are growing louder. The report highlights that in 2019, global greenhouse gas emissions reached a record 59.1 gigatons of CO2 equivalent. The increase since 2010 has averaged 1.4% per year.

In global markets, renewable energy has now overtaken coal as the largest source of electricity. There is significant potential in wind and solar energy as well as forestry that could help close the gap to the two-degree target by 2035. However, the future requires rapid action and significant ambition to ensure we avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

At a time when climate is at the center of the global discussion, it is crucial that politics and business work together to find sustainable solutions. This is the only way we can ensure an environmentally friendly and healthy future for future generations.