Climate crisis endangers peace: Germany's military firmly in focus!

Climate crisis endangers peace: Germany's military firmly in focus!

The climate crisis is no longer a distant threat scenario, but represents an urgent reality that threatens security worldwide to a previously unknown extent. According to the Friends of Nature, it is clear that the increasing number of weak and fragile states not only leads to social divisions, but also to bitter distribution struggles and possible conflicts. The failure of climate protection leaves nothing to be desired in terms of clarity: the danger that the world will be plunged into climate wars in the future is all too real.

Military spending in Germany currently reaches five percent of gross domestic product, which corresponds to 220 billion euros. Forecasts suggest that this spending could rise to around 250 billion euros in a few years. Ironically, these funds are being mobilized at a time when geopolitics is increasingly shaped by climate-related threats. As permafrost melts or natural disasters increase, the consequences of the climate crisis are geographically unfairly distributed, increasing the likelihood of violent conflict between wealthy and hard-hit regions.

Climate change as a military dilemma

Another alarming point is that the military sector itself is one of the largest contributors to CO₂ emissions. According to estimates, the military emits around 5.5 percent of all global CO₂ emissions. Climate and security researcher Hans Holzinger emphasizes that military reporting on greenhouse gas emissions largely suffers from secrecy. NATO, for example, emitted almost 200 million tons of CO₂ in 2021, and that number could rise to almost 300 million tons annually by the end of the decade.

As arms projects and military cooperation agreements continue to gain importance, this will often come at the expense of the environment. The EU's defense sovereignty plans, with a budget of 800 billion euros, could generate around 150 million tons of CO₂e alone. This corresponds to the annual emissions of the Netherlands or the combined emissions of Austria, Ireland and Finland.

Resource distribution and future conflicts

The unequal distribution of the impacts of climate change contributes to a non-negligible risk of an increase in internal conflicts. Less resilient regions, particularly in Africa, are particularly at risk. Climate change threatens the livelihoods of 1.6 billion people in Africa – a group that accounts for just four percent of global CO₂ emissions. However, these dynamic changes create tensions and refugee movements that affect security not only in affected countries, but also in major economic nations such as Germany.

The Munich Security Conference has had the issue of climate change on its agenda for several years and thus shows the increasing geopolitical relevance of climatic developments. With 80 percent of UN peacekeeping staff deployed in countries severely affected by climate change, the close connection between climate action and global security is becoming increasingly clear. The need to find integrated measures to address these challenges is essential to successfully implement both humanitarian and security programs.

In a world characterized by constant crises, one thing remains clear: the strong interaction between climate and conflicts has a decisive influence on international politics. A rethinking of security and climate policy is essential in order to bring peace and sustainability into harmony, as the environmental historian Verena Winiwarter aptly describes: "No peace without sustainability. No sustainability without peace." But the path there is full of hurdles and requires global efforts and better management of resources.